{"id":20363,"date":"2021-01-01T11:28:26","date_gmt":"2021-01-01T11:28:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/?p=20363"},"modified":"2021-01-01T11:28:26","modified_gmt":"2021-01-01T11:28:26","slug":"memahami-kerugian-akibat-pembatalan-hsr-melalui-sudut-ekonomi-keynesian-dan-konservatif-fiskal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/?p=20363","title":{"rendered":"MEMAHAMI KERUGIAN AKIBAT PEMBATALAN HSR MELALUI SUDUT EKONOMI KEYNESIAN DAN KONSERVATIF FISKAL"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oleh Abdul Rahim Hilmi Zakariya<\/span><\/p>\n

Projek Landasan Kereta Api Laju KL-Singapura (HSR) akhirnya dibatal dan dijangka diganti dengan Landasan Kereta Api Sederhana KL-Johor. Kos baru pula hanya sekitar 5 peratus rendah daripada cadangan laluan asal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Saya sebenarnya tidak berapa faham kenapa kerajaan buat keputusan begini. Dahulu ketika zaman Pakatan Harapan, kita boleh faham kerana Mahathir dan “Orang-orang Tua PH” adalah penganut mazhab ekonomi fiskal konservatif.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sedangkan kerajaan Barisan Nasional cenderung kepada Keynesian. Keynesian percaya bahawa perbelanjaan projek mega akan memberikan spillover effect<\/em> yang lebih besar daripada kos asal. Contohnya HSR akan menampung kesibukan laluan udara KL-Singapura, mewujudkan reverse migration<\/em> (orang kerja di bandar besar boleh kekal duduk di kampung) serta pembangunan di sepanjang jajaran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bayangkan dengan HSR, perjalanan Muar-Singapura boleh dilakukan sekitar 1 jam sahaja. Berapa ramai orang Muar boleh bekerja di Singapura dan kemudian berbelanja di kampung halaman? Kalau gaji pencucipun sampai RM6,000 sebulan, agak-agak berapa buah Pavilion akan dibuka di Muar?<\/span><\/p>\n

Tidak ada Ahli Parlimen yang kena botakkan kepala untuk beli laptop sebab orang Muar akan kaya raya!<\/span><\/p>\n

Tetapi bagi Konservatif Fiskal, mereka melihat perbelanjaan jimat-cermat (austerity<\/em>) serta bajet surplus sebagai keutamaan. Kurangkan hutang, potong kos operasi, amalan berbelanja secara berhemah dibuat supaya atas kertas ekonomi akan nampak cantik. Inilah kaedah kerajaan Barisan Nasional dahulu ketika zaman Mahathir-Anwar. Hutang negara menurun tetapi Pengarah Jabatan naik Perodua Rusa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Keynesian ini kurang ambil berat isu hutang. Sebab mereka percaya bahawa perbelanjaan infrastruktur besar akan menghasilkan tambahan pendapatan negara daripada segi cukai dan pertumbuhan ekonomi setempat.<\/span><\/p>\n

The benefits outweigh the risks.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Bergantung di mana kedudukan dan kepercayaan mazhab ekonomi anda, maka ia akan menentukan kedudukan sokongan anda dalam isu HSR.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tetapi keputusan kerajaan hari ini tidak menggambarkan mereka adalah pengamal konservatif fiskalpun. Sebab mereka masih menggunakan jumlah perbelanjaan yang hampir sama dengan kos cadangan HSR asal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cadangan baru ini pelik kerana sudahlah kelajuan kereta api dikurangkan kepada kelajuan sederhana sahaja (bermakna kesan reverse migration<\/em> adalah minimum), ia juga tidak akan memberi manfaat menyeluruh kepada industri penerbangan dan pelancongan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ia hanya akan menjadi projek domestik sahaja. Tidak akan membantu bagi hubungan bilateral, tidak akan memberi tambah nilai kepada KLIA1 dan KLIA2 serta tidak akan menjadi leverage<\/em> geopolitik sekiranya berlaku ketidaktentuan dalam hubungan politik antarabangsa.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oleh Abdul Rahim Hilmi Zakariya Projek Landasan Kereta Api Laju KL-Singapura (HSR) akhirnya dibatal dan dijangka diganti dengan Landasan Kereta Api Sederhana KL-Johor. Kos baru pula hanya sekitar 5 peratus rendah daripada cadangan laluan asal. Saya sebenarnya tidak berapa faham kenapa kerajaan buat keputusan begini. Dahulu ketika zaman Pakatan Harapan, kita boleh faham kerana Mahathir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":20366,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":""},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":[],"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"","type":"","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[],"bad":[],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[],"price":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[61,212],"tags":[1154,156,1769,1768],"class_list":["post-20363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rencana","category-utama","tag-abdul-rahim-hilmi-zakariya","tag-hsr","tag-keynesian","tag-konservatif-fiskal"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20363"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20367,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20363\/revisions\/20367"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/20366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/editormalaysia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}